2024 – 1

The article presents the results of the research substantiating the necessity of transition from automated safety systems to automated systems with elements of artificial intelligence, through the application of fuzzy set theory in the development of rational proposals for making management decisions to localize and eliminate accidents (emergencies) arising at the facilities of the oil and gas industry.

Neural network modeling of design decisions of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) development under uncontrollable factors requires solving the problem of selecting rational (optimal) UAV design decisions (parameters) by fuzzy logic methods. The solution of the problem of selecting optimal design parameters of UAV by fuzzy logic method is realized by means of neural network optimization of design solutions in terms of fuzzy logic and is an effective tool in the development of modern UAVs. To develop a neural-network approach to the selection of design decisions (parameters) of a UAV functioning under the conditions of uncertainty factors (uncontrollable) to improve the efficiency of the target tasks.

The article deals with the problem of ensuring the safety of economic projects implemented in natural and technical systems. Analysis of existing technologies for assessing risks arising in these systems due to the implementation of dangerous natural and man-made processes of geodynamic conditioning in them is carried out. An innovative technology of computer geodynamic modeling is proposed and considered in detail, designed to solve the main problems of ensuring the safety of economic projects implemented in natural engineering systems. The complex of mathematical models underlying the technology of computer geodynamic modeling is considered and analyzed. The results of the application of this technology are presented and discussed using examples of specific implemented projects. Based on the results of modeling within the framework of the claimed technology, numerical estimates of displacements and thermoelastic deformations in the surface layers of the Earth’s crust were performed for both the entire southern Yakutia and the vicinity of Yakutsk, as well as a forecast cortex for preliminary exploration of hydrocarbon deposits. An important conclusion is made that the presented technology makes it possible to monitor buildings, engineering structures and their ground bases, including in cryolithozone conditions, to develop sound recommendations on the conditions of safe construction of both individual facilities and their complexes, as well as to manage the construction procedure itself in territories of various scales, to carry out preliminary exploration of hydrocarbon deposits.

The paper presents an approach for finding the guaranteed (lower) estimates of the residual average time of emergency development in the conditions of incomplete data on the time of emergency development represented by small limited samples of emergency development time, the guaranteed (lower) estimate of the residual average time of emergency development is found using the results of solving the problem of Markov moments.

One of the main directions of the socio-economic policy of each country is stability, security, and growth in the quality of life of citizens. Real estate, capital assets in property, investments are criteria for a person’s success. In this regard, the formation of an affordable housing market is currently very important for Russia, since every person compares how he lives with people living in other countries, and the desire to be an owner is one of the strongest in a person. This direction of the socio-economic policy of the Russian Federation to improve the quality of life and, in particular, the provision of Russian citizens with housing is reflected in a number of strategic prudential documents, which is reflected in the active use of mechanisms and schemes for project financing (PF) over the past ten years. The PF has a high level of multiplication for the development of related industries and is characterized by a predictable level of risks, however, the escalation of project investments and mortgage programs carry the risk of financial bubbles, one of which, in 2008, led to dramatic consequences for the economies of many countries and people, when it burst. Analysts note that over the past ten years there has been a sharp increase in housing prices in many countries, therefore the index of the financial bubble in the construction and residential real estate market is monitored. In particular, there is a manipulation of interest rates, for example on mortgages and the development of types and types of mortgages, differentiation of stakeholders by segment. Currently, in Moscow and the Moscow region there are no signs of a mortgage bubble, according to developers, intermediaries and credit market entities: a minimum share of overdue loans; a small share of mortgage debt from GDP; purchasing housing primarily for personal living. A bubble is formed by a price imbalance, which they try to level out with certain monetary policy measures, but this process is not yet formalized. This article is devoted to models for managing the dynamics of a financial bubble.

The article considers an urgent problem in modern conditions of substantiation and development of methods for monitoring the situation in the area of the location of a nuclear power facility during the creation and strengthening of a territorial emergency response system in special conditions determined by the military-political situation. The essence of the methods, the results of practical developments are briefly considered and some proposals for the integrated use of tools for the implementation of these monitoring methods are presented.

In the analysis of the economic consequences of emergency situations (ES) and the assessment of sustainability, economic models of intersectoral balance (input-output model, economic-mathematical balance model) characterizing intersectoral production relationships in the country’s economy began to play a prominent role in the analysis of the consequences of emergencies and assessment of sustainability. These models draw attention to the difference between direct economic losses and the cascading effects that can arise within a multi-sectoral economic system as a result of a disaster. Expanding the capabilities of the system for analyzing the intersectoral balance is crucial for adequately assessing the consequences of emergencies at a sectoral and regional level. The article presents various aspects of emergency modeling, as well as assessing economic sustainability using economic-mathematical models of an intersectoral type. Structure of the article: introduction, models of inter-industry balance, presentation of emergencies in the system of input balance, methods of input balance for analyzing the consequences of emergencies, dynamic methods, balance models and sustainability assessment, conclusions, references.

The article examines problematic issues, situations and consequences arising as a result of the purposeful activities of secret American biological laboratories located in the territories of the post-Soviet space to develop and test dangerous biological pathogens on the population, flora and fauna of these and neighboring countries, causing the emergence of biological and social emergencies situations of local, municipal and regional nature. When writing the article, methods of analysis, induction and synthesis were used. The use of these research methods contributes to the formation of conclusions about the impact of the functioning of American biological laboratories located in the former post-Soviet space on the economy and security of the Russian Federation. The material from the article can be used when conducting scientific research, writing dissertations, and using it in the educational process of universities.

This paper aims to point out the harmful effects of ammunition with depleted uranium (DU) at a global level, as it causes ecocide, mutagenic and carcinogenic effects. Due to its increasingly frequent use, DU has become the subjectof conflict not only between opinions but also between the interests of those who use it and those who suffer its consequences. Throughout Europe, only the peoples of Serbia, Bosnia, and Herzegovina have had the opportunity to experience the impact of this nuclear waste. The author analyzes the consequences of the use of DUammunition listed in the lawsuit filed by Colonel Dragan Stojcic of the Serbian Armed Forces against the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The legal basis of the lawsuit is then presented, based on scientific evidence of causalrelationships and laboratory findings on the harmful effects of DU ammunition on the environment, life, and health of humans. NATO disputes all of this and claims that science is on their side and that they are legally protected by immunity. Nanoparticles contained in uranium oxide, which is formed at high temperatures above 3000°C after a DU penetrator bullet hits a solid target such as a tank, bunker, wall, etc., easily enter all parts of the environment, such as air, water, soil, and can cause not only regional contamination but also ecocide.

Space infrastructure is closely interconnected with the systems on the Earth and is crucial for many human activities. Rapidly progressing digitalization of our society with massive growth of Internet traffic and connected devices, as well as new applications of artificial intelligence will further accelerate the development of new space infrastructure and make it even more vital. However, this infrastructure is threatened by increasing congestion. Space debris, a by-product of space activities, poses a collision hazard to operational spacecraft. Unless active measures are taken to reduce this risk, the future costs associated with space debris could become enormous. Proper management of the near-Earth orbital space becomes critical to reap new benefits from space utilization and protect critical infrastructure. Based on a review of the current literature, we argue that market-based instruments can incentivize space debris mitigation and remediation measures and help circumvent obstacles to formal international sharing of responsibility for the current mu debris population.

Life safety in the context of the extensive development of civilization of the last millennium is becoming a fundamental, practice-oriented paradigm of scientific and technological progress (STP), which is much faster in its pace than the mental accompanying STP in modern society. Today, NTP is no longer accompanied by the revolutionary movement of the Luddites, the pogrom of weaving factories due to the massive reduction in the need for manual labor of weavers, depriving them of their livelihood. However, against the backdrop of a seemingly peaceful transition to the economy of knowledge and digital platforms, tectonic shifts are taking place in the understanding of the world structure, order, and views in civilizational states that claim leading positions in establishing the quiet and imperceptible “digital” subordination of the lower strata of the population, social the precariat class to the interests of the domination of creators and their patrons. The 20th century clearly demonstrated what nature becomes when maximization of profit is put at the forefront without regard to the degradation of the natural life-support resources themselves. The scientific and technical progress of the 21st century makes it possible to turn 80% of the population into “digital migrants,” giving the remaining 20% the opportunity to experience all the benefits of a digital “state-civilization”. The sharp aggravation of the military-political situation in the world of struggle for resources and chances for survival is a qualitatively new echo of the search for an answer to the question “to be or not to be” for a growing population or to depopulate its quantity within the framework of “surveillance capitalism”, leaving only the qualitative component for promoting and maintaining the digital scientific and technological progress paradigm. The article outlines certain aspects of the author’s approach to solving the path of transition in the development of civilization from the generation of dangers to the early warning of emergency situations and, ultimately, the creation of conditions for normal (safe) life, which has been developed over recent years.

Complex approaches of improving technologies of protection of population and territories from disasters/catastrophes during intensive industrial and economic exploitation of northern and far-eastern remote regions under conditions of modern climatic changes are considered. Their successful solution is planned to take into account, among the priority problems, the peculiarities of strategic risks of ensuring national security of the country, adaptation of the socio-economic sphere to the implemented projects, ensuring safe life activity of the population. Reduction of negative consequences of past activities and maximum possible preservation of positive practices accumulated by generations are considered with regard to the fundamental requirements in achieving reliable functioning and improvement of the country’s emergency potential, formation of effective structures of emergency preparedness/response to all possible challenges and threats of creation/development of industrial, mining, gas, petrochemical and energy potentially dangerous complexes, the most complex life systems. The implemented projects should take into account climatic and logistical conditions, prospects of modernization of communications, sea ports and the entire infrastructure of the Northern Sea Route, high environmental friendliness of co-modern industries as priority areas of sustainable development of the Russian Polar region. The listed positions, according to the authors, should become at the present stage of development of northern territories priority in overcoming the most difficult problems of improving the interaction of functional and territorial subsystems of the Unified State System of Prevention and Elimination of Emergency Situations at all levels of management for the protection of population and territories.